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kalpesh

i dont completely agree with you in the slot of the best picture. i think lotr-rotk will definitely turn all the odds down that a fantasy cant win an oscars. basically after seeing the triology i felt that it was not totally a fantasy, but a fantasy with was real within itself with all the human values and strong performances engraved in it. also surprisingly there is no cold mountain which i thought was the toughest competitor for the category. and about lost in translation winning the big prize, just forget it. i have seen mystic river and master and commander and both stand no chance with lotr. may be by not nominating cold mountain the hopes for an oscar for newline are at the maxim.

Sean

LOTR:ROTK is going to win best picture without a doubt. I have seen all 5 best pictures and none of the other 4 even come close. This is especially true when you consider: A) They are actually competing against LOTR as a trilogy (psychologically speaking) and widely regarded as the best trilogy ever (Godfather Part III was considered a weak entry) B) The other 4 are much smaller in scope and don't have that best picture "feel" to them. C) The very fact that a sci-fi/fantasy movies has never won only makes it more compelling and puts more pressure on the academy because there has never been a more obvious and deserving time than now. This is why to vote on or bet on any other movie is nuts. There is no guess work here people. Make way for the King of the greatest trilogy of all time.

mehdi

i don't totally agree with all the predictions but i think most of them are good except ...the supporting actress shororeh aghdashloo who will win an oscar and surprise people...but not me, she is my pick , and the best director award will go to brezilian director fernado mireilles for his astonishing directing debut , as for best film i think lost in translation is gonna make it but would have hoped for the return of the king to get at least 4 oscars to make it 10 for the entire trilogy.the twilight samurai is my best foreign language film this year and u know what ? the academy will honour this film because this year was a good year for japanese features ( the last samurai, kill bill , lost intranslation...et j'en passe ) master and commander may grab both best sound and best sound editing but the best sound editing is more a sure thing.charlize theron and bill murray are considered from now as academy award winners and tim robbins might just be betrayed by alec baldwin but his chances are not that big.my personal favourite movie this year was house of sand and fog and also dirty pretty things nominated for best original screenplay i hope it's gonna beat sofia coppola's lost in translation because she will win an oscar as a producer .the last samurai was the most overlooked film this year so i guess 2 oscars would be a normal recognition for this masterpiece and i'm thinking about the oscar for best art direction and a well-deserved best costume design.i'm not gonna speculate about the other categories beacause i'm a bad student especially the documentary and short films categories but hey who gives a damn about those....go shororeh go go!and by the way i'm not iranian but would be glad to see the first iranian woman ever to win an academy award ...that would be controversial in iran wouldn't it ?

Seth

I think that you're definitely on to something with the sympathy votes for Peter Jackson. But I can't agree with you that Lost in Translation will win best picture. Not that it doesn't deserve to win. But when has a movie that understated ever won best picture? And I can't agree with you that LOTR should get best directing or best editing either. There were so many pacing problems in that film, not as many as in The Two Towers, but the problems were significant. The main thing working against the Return of the King is that it can't stand alone as a great movie. The trilogy is great...but Return of the King, in isolation, just isn't a great film. The movie is too dependent on the other films for back story and character development. In fact, a lot of the scenes between characters in Return of the King come off as trite and underdeveloped (especially between Aragorn and the blonde chick) just becaue there isn't enough time to go back and re-establish all of the relationships from the previous films. And if those qualities are imputed to the movie by virtue of the first two, then it isn't fair to the other films that were nominated this year.

jole

It is not on the individual acting to be the factor as basis for the Best Picture but the acting ensemble.Because, you imagine and think there are only 5 nominees to be finalized. So we have to conclude Sean Astin is on top 6 or SIR Ian Mckellen as suppotring actor and Elijah Wood as best actor no.7.you see, still they are on the lead. So i bet LORD OF THE RINGS AS THE BEST PICTURE

jole

It is not on the individual acting to be the factor as basis for the Best Picture but the acting ensemble.Because, you imagine and think there are only 5 nominees to be finalized. So we have to conclude Sean Astin is on top 6 or SIR Ian Mckellen as suppotring actor and Elijah Wood as best actor no.7.you see, still they are on the lead. So i bet LORD OF THE RINGS AS THE BEST PICTURE.

AMANDO

MR. Joel is right on his statement that the Lord of the Rings :rotk must and ought to win the Oscar's Best Picture because: I have seen all the contenders but I made into final conclusion that LOTR:ROTK is still the winner.The former comment said that the basis is on the acting nod.Excuse me it is not the basis but the basis must be in general. Jole is right because ther it came the best supporting actor for the LOTR IS ON TOP N0.6 THAT IS WHY IT DID NOT ENETER IN 5. YOU SEE WHAT IS SIGNIFICANCE. YOU MUST THINK FIRST.

Deb Waltman

HI - I was using your site to try to make my picks for the annual oscar pool...which I've won a satisfactory number of times!
I found it interesting that on your site you said, "Best Director and Best Picture awards are rarely given to the same film" and I had to check the accuracy of this, as it didn't seem quite right.
I thought you'd be interested to know that, since 1980, the award has been given to the same film/director 18 times, compared to a split of 5 times (2002, 2000, 1998, 1989, and 1981). I didn't look before 1980, partially because I haven't seen a lot of those films but mostly because I have too much other work to do.
But I thought you'd be interested in rephrasing that comment on your site!
Best wishes,
Deb
--movie fan--

Palatypus

The Return of the King cannot lose this year for many reasons. First, as many would agree, ROTK is the best of the trilogy, and (with a little help with the sensitivity factor that its previous titles lost) it will win both as a singular film and as a part of the best trilogy of all time. Second, ROTK will win because IT IS a fantasy title. It has always been a prick in the Academy's side that fantasy/sci-fi never wins, so proving the feeling wrong on the best the genre has to offer is a given for oscar gold. Third, and most importaintly, ROTK is just simply a better film than its competition. After seeing all the films (including the horribly dry, boring, and slow Lost in Translation) it is completely obvious that no other films stand a chance.
As I have already stated, LIT cannot win. It was to slow and way to boring. I found myself while watching it wondering why it had been nominated, and what drugs people had been on while watching it to actually like it. True, Bill Murray's performance was very good (and it will beat Penn's extreme overacting), but that still can't save it.
Master and Commander, while being extremely beautiful in appearence, doesnt move much past that. Its acting is better than is present in LIT, though that isn't saying much, but it is damaged heavily by a bad screenplay. The diolouge is not very good, and understanding what is going on and trying to remember every character is difficult, especially when compaired to its ROTK competition. There's only enough room for one ensamble cast flick, and this isn't it.
Mystic River is the story of three children, who after one is kidnapped and sexually abused, grow up to have extremely depressing lives. This is drama in every way, and it never becomes more than that. This flick is so dark and moody that it swallows itself, and leaves you feeling less impressed with it as a movie and more disgusted that Sean Penn over acts his way through one of the most predictable mysteries of all time. Never a surprise, never a light moment, boy did it try to hard. In past years, this movie could have won, but not this year. Its way to dark as compaired to the other films. The only good thing that will come from this movie is Tim Robbins, who does one of the best performances in years, and will win for best supp. actor (though he should have gone up for lead actor)
Lastly is Seabiscuit (spell?) which is probably the only other film in the catagory that has any status as a good all around film. The acting is good, the story is good, the cinematography is good, and the flow is good. But there is the problem: its only just good, never great. While in comparied to M&C, LIT, and MR, Seabiscuit has a much better overall flow, but it fails to bring as much feeling (other that the "Feel Good" feeling that has very rarely won in the past except for the horrible Shakespeare in Love) as many of the other films and can't even hold a candel to The Return of the King.
The final installment will certainly win this year, and it is deserving of the prize. Not only is it the best film of the year ALONE, it is also a the best installment of the best trilogy of all time. It better's each and every film in all of its catagories in every way that people like the other films. It will wim the race, and send the competition back to the stable, back to their dark home, back to its port, and back to America where they belong.

Rob

Please Read and Consider This:

I have a friend, somewhat of an insider as I like to say... LOL she dosnt think so... to the Oscars... she is like an advisor to a few board memebers who choose the winners.

This is what she thinks... and she gets the winners right about 90% of the time in the past 10 yrs...

Okay... put aside that Lord of the Rings is a fantasy film and what not... and consider this: The category BEST PICTURE is not just about acting... it is about the film as a whole.
Mystic River heavily focuses on the acting. its a good movie but is all about the acting. she said it will not win b/c of the members of the acadamy thinking that...

You talked about the history of the awards and fantasy films and such not winning... well my friend... Comedy's do not tend to do so well either... Look back and they have not done so well either... So I don't think its fair to say ROTK will not win just b/c it is a fantasy film and they have never one... (thats how i interpreted what u said). But Lost in Translation focused more on acting than it did the acutal story, says my friend on the advisory board...

She covered Seabiscut and M&Commander in a few words... she said they just lacked what ROTK and mystic river had... and for that reason she said they just couldnt match up... she was actually shocked that M&C made the nomination instead of cold mountain.

ALL in all... ROTK was all about the story where as River, translation were more about the acting... As she said... 95% of the acadamy votes on the story more than the acting... she said ppl walked out of some meetings smiling and murmoring things about King... that dosnt mean anything...

In my opinion however... If there is any justice in the Acadamy ROTK will win to reward its magnificance and to reward all 3 films... Jackson will and should get Best Director... and it wont be a sympathy vote for not ever getting it... more to reward him with his excellence for King and all 3 films...

If we went by some of your standards... (just to let u know i know u changed who u think will win best director from coppla to jackson , although u stated u think she should win) Then b/c a female director has never been nominated before that ultimatly eliminates Sofia Coppla... thats according to what you said about fantasy and sci fi films never winning LOL just making an observation!

Thanks for your predictions and your explanation of things! I greatly enjoy reading others opinions!

Rob

I wanted the oportunity to those intrested in my predictions, as well as my friend who is an advisor to a few people on the acadamy who choose the winners, to post our predictions... hers were identical to mine except in a few categories...

Best Picture:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Director:
Peter Jackson

Best Actor:
Sean Penn

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Tim Robbins

Best Actress:
Charlize Theron

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Renée Zellweger

Best Animated Feature Film:
Finding Nemo

Best Art Direction:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
(did you see the amazing art work that came from this film...outstanding)

Best Cinematography:
Master and Commander

Best Costume Design:
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

Best Documentary:
I think Capturing the Friedmans
Friend thinks the Fog of War

Best Documentary Short Subject:
Asylum

Best Film Editing:
Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Foreign Language Film:
I think Barbarian Invasions
friend thinkgs twilight samurai

Best Makeup:
LORT: ROTK

Best Music (Score):
LOTR: ROTK

Best Music (Song):
Into the West - LOTR: ROTK

Best Short Film (animated):
Boundin'

Best Short Film(Live Action):
Two Soldiers

best Sound Editing:
I think M&C
Friend thinks Pirates of the Carribean

Best Sound Mixing:
LOTR: ROTK
Reason is b/c of the difference in the types of sounds used and how they got them :) quite interesting how they got them :)

Best Visual Effects:
LOTR: ROTK

Best Adapted ScreenPlay:
LOTR: ROTK

Best Original ScreenPlay:
Lost in Translation

As you can see from both of our predictions... King we predict will take home most of what they are nominated for... we were both stuck on the film editing category but as my friend said... taken consideration of King's length and the possibilities for mess ups in editing... ultimatly she felt it was sufficiant.. and should win.. She stated... as can be read in the Los Angelos Times... "King's length provided multiple opportunities for mess ups in its editing, however when you do take the movies length into consideration there were very few." She went on to say.. "When it comes out on DVD and you watch it over and over... there are no places where you just want to skip over it and go to the next chapter in the DVD... King is amazing with it's editing that way." The other tough category was writing for adapted screenplay... my friend ultimatly convinced me to LOTR: ROTK when she talked about it being the 3rd film, wanting to reward not only ROTK, but all 3 of the films with the award... and how when you think adapted screenplay... how jackson took ROTK and all LOTR movies from the book to the big screen, how amazing and huge it was... not to mention the biggest battle sceen every done before on a motion picture screen! 200,000 ocrs!! LOL anywayz thats why I went with it... its hardships that it overcame magnificantly! :)
Those are my friend on the advisory board for the acadamy awards and my predictions!

Shes allowed to give her predictions cuz she isnt a member of the acadamy, just an advisor to some of the members :) LOL cuz I know someone will ask why she said who she thinks will win :)

John Kastanes

Your comments were both interesting and unique. I have been following the Oscars for years and have noticed that there has been a complete lack of "upsets" over recent years, i.e. someone winning that came completely out of the blue (only James Colburn comes to mind). The Oscars have gotten so predictable and political that you have to wonder that if someone like Alec Baldwin winning this year would illicit a "wow!".
Anyway, I don't see them giving Sophia Coppola two Oscars because she seems like a lock in the screenplay catagory... so Jackson seems to be a heavy favorite. I think Bill Murray will win because the Academy's worst nightmare is Penn not showing up (shades of George C. Scott!) If Diane Keaton wins there is no justice in the world -- the bigger mystery is what Charlize Theron will be wearing when she's giving her acceptance speech. Robbins will probably be the bone they throw at "Mystic River", although Alec Baldin can not be comepletely discounted. Zellweger will finally be victorious after striking out in the Best Actress catagory recently. "Lord of the Rings" will win best picture because it was the most popular flick, by critics and fans, and this will be it's reward for all the green it's made.
Finally, I really do hope there is a earth-shattering, drop-your-jaw announcement... and the winner is, John Depp!!! I just highly doubt it.

PS - Another reason I think "Lord of the Rings" will win is because it has the longest running time -- the nominee with the longest running time wins over 50% of the time!

Ana

LOTR is going to win, no matter all its critics has to say!!!. And if it doesn't occur, is just because the Academy makes frequent mistakes. For me, this is a piece of art, a breathtaking and inspirational one. I write about movies, European as well, and this trilogy is just one of a kind...the best movie ever!!!

bug collins

I think, as rob pointed vout, that just because ROTK is a fantasy film, it doesn't mean that it wont win. There is always a first. And a woman has never won b4 in the directing, so y do u think coppola will win? And ROTK is deep, and it is emotional. So my case stands firm.

Terry Boake

Okay, you're a moron. Your comment that "it's rare for a picture and a directing nod go together" just made me stop reading your entire bashing of LOTR. Even if it doesn't win, it is a statistical fact that appx. 75% of the best pic and best director wins go hand in hand, so wherever you are getting your information from, (which is probably your own mind that didn't bother to even research any of your arguement)you should just shut the hell up and not bother to waste other readers time with you uninsightful tirades and bitterness.

Yours truly

Nate Cameron

"Best Director and Best Picture awards are rarely given to the same film."

You could not be more wrong.

Beautiful Mind, American Beauty, Titanic, English Patient, Braveheart, Forrest Gump, Schindler's List, Unforgiven, Silence of the Lambs, Dances with Wolves ... shall I go on? ... Rain Man, Last Emporer, Platoon, Out of Africa, Amadeus, Term s of Endearment, Ghandi, Ordinary People ...

Of the last 13 years - the award for best picture and best director have gone to the same film 10 times! 18 of the last 23! That hardly makes it rare. Actually, what is rare, is for the Oscars to give the best picture and best director award to two different movies.

Nate Cameron

"As I said, in the last 45 years only two films have won the Best Picture award without a nomination in any of the four acting categories."

I might add that Return of the King won Best Ensemble awards from The Broadcasters Film Critics Association and the National Board of Review. It also has a strong chance of picking up the ensemble perofrmace award at the SAGs. If acting is so important to a Best Picture nod, then it would seem as though ROTK might have the edge - considering that people seem to think it has the best overall acting.

The problem with ROTK getting acting nominations is that the movie has no real actress roles and no real lead actor roles - but rather a bunch of supporting actor roles. Andy Serkis, Sean Astin, Ian McKellan - who gets the nomination? In the end, no one because they all cancel each other out. That doesn't mean the performaces are not award worthy. If the Oscars had an ensemble category - one could presume that ROTK would be the frontrunner.

leo

will rotk win best score?

Leo

If there are Five oscars that it would be criminal for Rotk to go away without its these: Visual effects. Reason? One word - Gollum. Secondly, Music Score. Reason? Well the variety of music is so very different from the first 2 films, and yet there is something in it that wraps the three together. The music for Minas Tirith and the lighting of the beacons frankly brings tears to my eyes, and the hobbit theme is given a different sting to it when Pippin has to depart from Merry. Also, when Gandalf is talking about the Grey HAvens, a very interestring little melody is played that suits the moment perfectly. You can here that in more detail at the end with "Into the West". Thirdly,Screenplay. Ive read the books, and even though theyre great, you have to admit that the man does talk the biggest ammount of bollocks sometimes, and to get that on to screen and to get audience to understand what is going on is nothing short of a miracle. Fourthly, director. Reason? The battles. The contast between good and evil. The dark side of Frodo. The death of Theoden. The characteristics of Gollum. The contrasting characteristics of all the fellowship. The fact that hes made, arguably, the greatest trilogy of all time. A little reward, perhaps? Finally, Picture. Its a stunning stunning film, in writing, spectacle, technically and emotinally. Thanks for reading this!

Matt

First, LOTR will win the Lion's Share this year, since the trilogy has concluded and now it's time for everyone in Hollywood to bow down to Peter Jackson!!! Fabulous movie and we'll see the Oscar Sci-Fi Curse removed.

Secondly, What the hell is up with Lost in Translation??? Horrible movie!!! There is no way around it. Is everyone afraid of hurting Sofia's feelings? Is her dad that powerful? That movie sucked!!! I have seen all of the nominated movies and many that are not. Personally Kangaroo Jack was a better movie with a more developed story and insight into their characters. The movie has made my top ten worst movies ever, and easily is second, only to Citizen Kane, as the most over rated movie. How can any self respecting person stand up for this movie. What made it so F'N great???


Go LOTR, screw Master and Commander for hosing Cold Mountain, screw Lost in Translation for hosing Last Samurai, WAR Peter Jackson, WAR Ken Watanabe beating Tim Robbins

Matt

RotK just took home the SAG award for best ensemble performace. So much for the argument that RotK won't win because the Best Picture winner needs acting nominations.

Johnny Depp also took home the award for Best Actor ... furthering my hope that Penn and Murray will split the vote and give it to Depp - the dark horse. The Best Actor award is the only really exciting race of the night as the others are all but locked up. Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress, however, have potential spoilers too.

Stoli

I saw lost in translation, and it was so mind-numblingly boring that if it wins Best Picture whoever voted for it should be taken out back and beaten with a shovel.

Of course, the same should have been said back in '96 when The English Patient won.

Palatypus

Agreed. "Lost" sucked. Just because a movie is so mind numbingly boring it makes you crazy, it doesn't mean it's "Artsie," it just means it's crap. "Lord of the Rings" will be the "Lord of the Oscars," and if all things go well, Bill Murray and Sean Penn (neither of whom deserve the Oscar; Murray was sleepy and boring, Penn was doing professional overacting) will lose horribly, and Johnny Depp (who did, god I can't believe I'm saying it, the best acting of the year) will walk up on stage and once again prove that he is both awsome and stranger than hell.

ephany

Ha ha. :-)

jackie

hey every one
i was wondering if any body had the words to the song that Billy Crystal sang in the opening act at the 2004 oscars
it was to the music of "My Favorite Things from the Sound of Music"
plz if u have any info email me at

lotrfreak79@aol.com
thanx

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